Photo cred: O’Colly
I’ve got a feeling we’re in for some close ones this week.
Despite wildly missing the spread on a couple games last week—here’s looking at you, OU-Nebraska—I had my first perfect week of picks last week. I haven’t gone back to look, but after a terrible year picks-wise last year, in which I barely finished over .600, I’m bristling away at .857 through three weeks. My goal has always been to finish the season at .750, which has never happened, with .700 being my baseline acceptable picking percentage. I have a feeling my percentage may take take a hit this week—picking a couple big upsets—but hey, we’ll enjoy it while we can.
Most picks-oriented columnists have gone exclusively to picking the spread and focusing on betting. For anyone curious as to why I haven’t done that: I started writing these picks back in 2012 mostly as a competitive venture. I thought I could do at least as well as David Ubben, who was then ESPN’s Big 12 blogger, and wrote a weekly set of picks for the conference. Also, I do it first and foremost as a fan of the sport, and what fans care about at the end of the day is whether or not their team wins. Not whether their team covers. It’s nice for your team to cover. Better to win.
None of this to say I don’t try to be accurate with my predicted score. As with everything, I’m often right-on—and often dead wrong.
On OSU vs. K-State: over the past couple decades, it’s become one of the Big 12’s best match-ups, the kind of game that feels like a rivalry even though as-yet no one calls it one. The Cats and Pokes have faced of 67 times dating back to 1908, and over the past 20 years have fought things to a fairly even split: OSU owns a 9-6 edge dating back to 2000, and have gone 7-4 since 2010, winning mostly close games, the Cowboys’ largest margin of victory being by 13 in 2019. The Wildcats have won more blowouts (the 31-12 games in 2018 was particularly painful). What’s interesting to me is that this OSU-KSU should count as a rivalry game. In the new Big 12, it’ll practically have to be. On the other side of that coin, even though both teams are undefeated and K-State is ranked No. 25 in the AP poll, with the Pokes holding at No. 22 in the Coaches’, the game is on ESPN+, which is only slightly better than not being televised at all. Feels like perhaps a preview of life after OU-Texit. I don’t like it.
I’m predicting four of this week’s six games will be within a touchdown. Should be entertaining!
Last week: 8-0 (1.000)
Overall: 24-4 (.857)
SMU 21, TCU 35. This will be the hundredth meeting between these two teams—they play the game for a skillet. TCU owns a 51-41-7 edge, and was upset in the most recent meeting (2019), but the Frogs are 17-3 in this game since 1999.
Texas Tech 45, Texas 41. This, along with TTU-UT, is the toughest game of the week for me to pick. The money’s on the Horns (-9), but Tech’s gonna be bringing the hatred. Texas survived last year’s game 63-56. We all saw the Horns get embarrassed in Week Two in Fayetteville; Tech barely survived Stephen F. Austin that same night, but did get a nice win against Houston in Week One. The main factor here, is Tech’s quarterback, Oregon transfer Tyler Shough, who’s already thrown for 804 yards through three games—I know that doesn’t sound like much from a school that produced Pat Mahomes and a host of other gunslingers, but it’s a lot in this year’s league. I’m going with an old-fashioned Big 12 shootout here, and a Tech victory.
No. 14 Iowa State 28, Baylor 30. Though ISU rebounded nicely from its loss in the annual Cy-Hawk game, beating lowly UNLV 48-3 last week in Vegas, I think they might be in for some trouble with the Waco Evangelicals this week. Baylor enters the game with the leading rusher in this matchup, with senior running back Abram Smith having gone over a hundred yards in each of BU’s first three games. He’s averaging 7.8 yards-per-carry.
Kansas 13, Duke 30. Way back in 2009, when a very large man named Mark Mangino was Kansas’s head coach, the Jayhawks beat the Blue Devils 44-16. Duke lost to Charlotte in its opener.
No. 25 Kansas State 14, Oklahoma State 17. OSU is favored by six points in this one; the over-under is 46.5. I’m skeptical that even that many points will be scored in this game. K-State doesn’t have its starting quarterback; OSU was missing six of its top seven receivers last week against Boise State. Being that I’m not sure who will be back this week, I think it’ll be a hard-fought battle that’ll honestly be tough to watch, though I think OSU will pull it out in the end.
West Virginia 24, No. 4 Oklahoma 34. Conference play finally begins for the Sooners, probably against the team, aside from Texas, that likely hates them least for doing their part to (nearly) destroy the conference: the Mountaineers, who, though they haven’t managed to beat the land thieves a single time since joining the Big 12, have at least engaged them in a few offense-oriented doozies: 50-49 in 2012; 59-56 in 2018. I don’t think we’ll see that many points this Saturday, but I do think Vegas having OU at -17 is a bit generous, considering both the Sooners’ struggles against Tulane and Nebraska and West Virginia’s 27-21 upset last week of Virginia Tech. I think WVU keeps it close but coughs up a late touchdown to widen the margin.