Week 12 Big 12 Picks: Flying Tortilla Bros. Edition
OSU heads to Lubbock with everything on the line
History time! The last time Kansas got a road conference win:
George W. Bush was president.
I was in my freshman year of college.
Zac Robinson was the starting quarterback at Oklahoma State.
Jim Knowles was head coach at Cornell University.
Mike Gundy was 41 years old and in his fourth season at OSU.
WVU was a member of the Big East Conference in football.
Nebraska, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Missouri were all in the Big 12.
A young man named Sam Bradford would go on to win the Heisman.
The University of Texas football team went 12-1, including victories over OU, A&M, OSU, Baylor, Arkansas, and Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. The Longhorns would play for the national title the next year.
That last factoid is almost the most mind-boggling. Texas is 4-6 and has two remaining shots just to get bowl eligible.
Along with BU and Texas Tech scoring upsets over OU and ISU respectively, last week’s 57-56 win by KU over UT marked the last hit over my season win-percentage. I didn’t mind.
Last week: 2-3 (.400)
Overall: 48-17 (.738)
Iowa State 27, No. 13 Oklahoma 24. I’ve been trying to read the tea leaves on this one and it’s damn nearly impossible. I know I wouldn’t bet a dollar on this game. (Okay, maybe a dollar, but not much more.) ISU is 1-2 on the road this year against P5 competition, the lone win coming against K-State, with losses against seemingly inferior WVU and Texas Tech squads. OU is coming off getting mauled by Baylor. We know these Cyclones are not frightened of Owen Field. We all know that. OU knows it, too. ISU has been just as inconsistent as OU, the major difference being that they’ve found a way to lose three more times than the Sooners. A win here keeps Iowa State’s title game hopes alive. A win for the Sooners keeps their hopes alive and, weirdly enough, makes OSU a lock for the game.
Texas 20, West Virginia 28. The Mountaineers have absolutely imploded since beating a ranked Iowa State team on October 30, losing 24-3 to OSU and 34-17 to K-State. There may, however, be no word in the English langauge for what has happened to Texas over the past five weeks. WVU is favored by a fieldgoal, which, as the home team, means this is pretty much a tossup. I think the Mountaineers cover.
Kansas 24, TCU 35. I need more evidence before I say that Kansas is actually improving, but it’s striking to me that the lowly Jayhawks have put together their two best games this year against the conference’s soi-disant élite members, OU and Texas. Win or lose, a strong performance against the Horned Frogs would be a feather in Lance Leipold’s cap.
No. 11 Baylor 31, Kansas State 27. This is a very tough call. On the one hand, I have a feeling about it, which is that K-State has been heating up recently, and may be flying under the radar a bit here. Baylor is coming off the bigger victory by far, and I also have to wonder how many phone calls has Dave Aranda fielded this week, from the likes of USC and LSU. Aranda is a So-Cal guy; USC seems likely.
No. 9 Oklahoma State 45, Texas Tech 20. This could be a huge trap-game for the Pokes, but I think they take care of business. By that token, I also think it’s possible that this game is closer than most Cowboys fans want it to be early on.. OSU’s first team defense has not allowed a touchdown in the past 12 quarters. Per The Athletic’s Max Olson, OSU has
the first Big 12 defense to hold teams under 100 rushing yards per game since 2011. Nobody has run for 150 on them yet. The pass defense has been just as stingy, allowing six touchdowns and ranking No. 1 in Big 12 play in nearly every category. They’re tied for the national lead in sacks (37). Teams have run 619 plays against them, and only 89 have gained 10-plus yards. Just as many plays have gone for negative yardage. They’re No. 2 nationally in third-down defense (24.3%) with stops on 36 of their last 40. They’re forcing three-and-outs on 47% of drives vs. FBS foes (No. 4 nationally) and allowing 1.1 points per drive (also No. 4).
To quote John Cleese: Pretty strong meat there. I’ll go a step further and say that this defense looks as dominant as the 2011 offense was. Over the next two weeks, against Tech and OU, it’ll have a chance to make a definitive statement on the matter.